Massive changes in the weather:"Massive changes in the weather are unavoidable." | |
Dr. Klaus Radunsky is head of the department for International Climate Protection at the Federal Environmental Agency and represents the Federal Ministry for Environment in a number of international bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or the Annex I Expert Group of OECD. In an interview with TÜV TIMES he discusses the consequences of climate change for Austria.
TÜV Times: We are concerned about our children. Under what climatic conditions will they live in Austria in 50 years time if the general conditions do not change?
Dr. Radunsky: There will be massive changes in the climate if we continue to live in the way we do now. From the middle of the 19th century till the end of the 20th century we have recorded an increase in the global temperature of approx. 0.8 Grad degrees. During the last decades however this development has accelerated strongly. That is to say: The change which we had in the 20th century, is only a foretaste of what we have to expect in the decades ahead.
TÜV Times: What does it mean if the global temperature increases by one degree?
Dr. Radunsky: Let me explain it differently: If the temperature increases by five degrees, then this corresponds to the gradual change which made the difference between the last ice age and its end, the present interglacial.
TÜV Times: In what kind of scenario do we find ourselves now?
Dr. Radunsky: The increase in emissions which we have at present is becoming very much faster through the activities in Asia. If the present trend continues we will have an increase in temperature of up to ten degrees by 2060. That is beyond good and evil.
TÜV Times: What does this mean precisely?
Dr. Radunsky: I cannot tell you, because this has not yet been properly calculated. What has already been simulated are temperature jumps of four degrees. These are the most extreme assumptions which have been calculated so far. That means real changes of the average annual temperature for northern latitudes of 7 degrees over the year. For Austria we would have to reckon with changes of around five degrees. The vegetation will change radically. If the global temperature increases by 1 to 1.5 degrees, it is expected that approx. 30% of the species are threatened by extinction. If the increase in temperature goes higher, this figure will also go up.
TÜV Times: An increase of five degrees would mean the end for Austria as a skiing nation
Dr. Radunsky: Snow will certainly become rare. We will have as much snow in Vienna as we have now in Rome.
TÜV Times: What is going to happen to Austria's coniferous forests which are adapted to the humid and cool northern climate?
Dr. Radunsky: One thing is clear: The forest as we know it now will be having problems on a large scale regarding its present composition if there is an average increase of temperature of more than two degrees. This does not mean that this cannot be managed. After all there are also forests in warmer regions. But it does mean that we will have to say farewell to our present forms of forestry. Temperature is not the only thing that is changing. The pattern of rainfall is changing too. Our summers will be getting much drier. And there will be more precipitation in winter accordingly. This prognosis is supported by many circulation models. The regularity of the precipitations will change, and snow will be replaced by rain. As a consequence the storage function of winter with its slow release of water during snowmelt will be lost. The probability of floods and aridness will increase.
TÜV Times: there be droughts?
Dr. Radunsky: Dry periods will certainly increase. For example: if we have dry periods of 30 days in Austria, these will in future last for 60 days. But it might also become 90 days. And one can imagine the effect of this on our biology and agriculture. Our crops will not be able to survive this or only in a limited manner. One will have to think of clear strategies for this.
TÜV Times: How far are these consequences?
Dr. Radunsky: Even if we could in future get the emissions down to zero, one reckoned that the temperature would still increase by 0.1 degree per decade over several decades. So we already exposed ourselves to a further temperature increase because of the greenhouse gases emitted so far. We cannot change that any longer. What we can still control is whether we will have a global rise in temperature of two degrees, four degrees or six degrees in this century. As far as the effects are concerned, they are poles apart. These are the targets which are being discussed during the present climate negotiations. What needs to be done is to reduce the emissions so drastically that this 2 degrees target can be met till 2060. That will be a difficult task, because we got ourselves into a fatal situation with our present emissions already.
TÜV Times: Fatal?
Dr. Radunsky: Yes. The 2 degrees target can only be reached still if one not only reduces the emissions completely, but in addition removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. One possibility would be to use the carbon stored in the form of plants in bio mass power stations. With CO2 sequestration, another method being discussed at present at the European level, carbon is bound in geological deposits - such as underground caverns or empty oil and gas deposits. But the prior separation of the carbon as CO2 requires a high amount of energy. The concept also stands or falls with the leakage rate of the CO2 stored. Therefore a comprehensive risk analysis of the deposits chosen, which must be based on comprehensive examinations, is absolutely necessary. In any case the costs of the entire process are considerable.
TÜV Times: Natural degradation is no longer sufficient?
Dr. Radunsky: The emissions have already been too strong for that. Nobody has calculated yet what all that will cost. But it is a dangerous policy to rely on that technology. It is theoretical model. So far we do not know how much the removal of carbon dioxide and its storage will function in practice and in the necessary dimensions.
TÜV Times: What quantities are we talking about here?
Dr. Radunsky: It is not only a question of quantities. It is also about time. In our "overshooting scenario", in which too many greenhouse gases are already in the atmosphere and have their effect, the removal has to take place at a speed without the temperatures rising too much. We therefore do not have much time to remove this carbon dioxide. In our computer models we speak of more than 10 billion tons of CO2 per year which have to be removed in this manner from the atmosphere and the carbon dioxide cycle. In my opinion it is most uncertain whether this can be done.
TÜV Times: What does this really mean?
Dr. Radunsky: Massive changes in the weather are unavoidable. Adaptation strategies are therefore also unavoidable. How will we manage with our agriculture under these conditions, how do we react to the climate migration which is to be expected from the southern Mediterranean countries? Changing precipitation patterns will influence the water balance, extreme weather events will affect entire areas. Katrina will no longer remain an exceptional event. The increase in the number of hurricanes, which affect very large areas, has been proven for certain areas. Small-scale tornados will also become a weather phenomenon in Europe. One could see such tornados in Germany and Switzerland, which were small-scale, but just as devastating.
TÜV Times: Is there a way-out scenario for that situation?
Dr. Radunsky: We must get the emissions under control. This does not only refer to a slowing down of the increase, but to a reduction of the volume. The EU already has a clear concept for this. It states that we need to reduce the emissions as per 1990 globally by 50% until 2050. For industrial states this means a reduction of 60-80 % as compared to 1990. In the process it becomes more and more clear that it is not a question of transforming the increase of greenhouse gas emissions into a stabilisation, but of a drastic reduction of the present emissions. The natural carbon dioxide sink which ensures the degradation in nature is hopelessly overstrained. We cannot afford 1- 1.5 billion tons of carbon per year globally which we emit into the atmosphere. Otherwise the system will run out of control.
TÜV Times: The economy tells us that such efforts by far exceed the available means…
Dr. Radunsky: On needs to consider the costs of the alternative. If one only reckons the climate consequences which can be valued in money, the consequences of climate change will exceed the costs for reducing them, even with the most aggressive reduction scenarios. One also has see that at the present €24,– per ton of CO2, which are quoted within the framework of emissions trading, many are complaining already that this was the limit of what they could put up with financially. It is unavoidable that the costs and follow-up costs of the emissions will go up massively. We will have to learn to live with climate change and its consequences - whether we like it or not.
